The 2024 U.S. presidential election is the most consequential in American history — at least since the end of the Civil War. In all likelihood, the race will be a rematch of 2020 with President Joe Biden facing off against former President Donald Trump.

It’s hard to overstate the importance of November’s race. The elections will likely determine not just the future composition of the Supreme Court and the fate of millions of migrants, but also potentially the future of America’s democracy and role in the world.

Haley the Spoiler?

Trump will first have to win the Republican nomination. He’s maintained a massive lead over other Republicans in national public opinion polls — currently besting Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis each by over 50 percent, according to RealClearPolling.

But Haley is rising in New Hampshire, home to the first Republican primary. (It’s preceded by a caucus in Iowa.)

If former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie bows out, she could pull off a surprise, potentially giving her the momentum to pull off another upset in her home state of South Carolina, which is next on the primary schedule.


Trump the Convict?

Now, even if Trump holds on and wins the Republican nomination, the suspense does not end there. Trump has been indicted in four criminal cases, including two related to election interference. He could be the second convict to run for U.S. president — the first was Socialist Eugene Debs — and the first to win.

Trump’s eligibility to run is being challenged on a state-by-state basis. But generally speaking, there’s no bar on his ability to run. However, if he’s convicted imprisoned, and wins the election, that would raise questions as to whether he can legally govern. The U.S. would find itself in a constitutional crisis unlike ever.

Biden: A Weak Horse

Biden, however, is not without his own challenges. Astonishingly, he trails behind Trump in many national polls and in seven swing states.

Unemployment remains low and a recession has been avoided. But inflation has eaten away at voters’ purchasing power and their support for Biden.

Progressives are also angered by Biden’s unequivocal support for Israel in the Gaza war.

What a Second Trump Presidency Would Mean

Apathy among progressive and non-white voters could hand the presidency to Trump, who is likely to pursue a campaign of vengeance against his political foes.

A second Trump presidency will not only challenge the resilience of American democracy, but the U.S. role in the world. Trump is keen on ending U.S. support for Ukraine’s resistance against Russia. A win for Trump would be a win for Putin.

Control of both houses of Congress is also up for grabs. Senate control is particularly critical this time around with speculation that Supreme Court justices, Samuel Alito and the scandal-hit Clarence Thomas, could retire.

Arif Rafiq is the editor of Globely News. Rafiq has contributed commentary and analysis on global issues for publications such as Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the New Republic, the New York Times, and POLITICO Magazine.

He has appeared on numerous broadcast outlets, including Al Jazeera English, the BBC World Service, CNN International, and National Public Radio.


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