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Last night, at his rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden, former President Donald Trump dismissed a report he claimed said the U.S. “cannot win” a war with China.

Trump boasted to the audience that in a U.S.-China war, “We would kick their ass.”

Though a former commander-in-chief, Trump has a track record of being inaccurate or untruthful in characterizing foreign policy and national security issues.

The China challenge is undoubtedly the most significant foreign policy danger to the United States. On this and any other issue, it’s important to balance the statements of politicians with the analysis of independent experts.

So what do the experts say about how a U.S.-China war would play out?

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a prominent Washington think tank, published in early 2023 the results of wargames it conducted with experts, focusing on a hypothetical Chinese invasion of the island country of Taiwan. The results were sobering.

After running the wargame 24 times, the experts at CSIS concluded that the United States and its allies would prevail over China in a battle for Taiwan — but at a staggering cost. Tens of thousands of U.S. and allied servicemembers would be killed, with dozens of warships and hundreds of planes destroyed.

In other words, a war with China, at least one over Taiwan, would be the deadliest for the U.S. since the Vietnam War and far from the “ass-kicking” Trump says it would be.

It’s worth noting that analyses and wargames by other organizations are far less confident that the U.S. would prevail over China — and some argue it could raise the risk of a nuclear escalation.

The experts at CSIS recommend strengthening the U.S. capabilities to deter China from invading Taiwan, including by strengthening alliances with regional countries like Japan. The U.S. cannot go it alone: the CSIS study notes that U.S. bases in Japan are essential to American aerial operations in a potential war with China.

Trump is right to press China on its unfair trade policies, including distortionary subsidies — a frustration shared by pretty much the rest of the world. His administration also rightly punished Chinese officials for their human rights abuses against Uyghur and other Turkic Muslims in the Xinjiang region. However, his recent bravado on the campaign trail is counterproductive and, if sustained, would push the world closer to the World War III he claims to seek to prevent.

When it comes to the China challenge, behind-the-scenes alliance-building, not bluster, is what’s needed.

Listen to my conversation with Ali Wyne of the International Crisis Group on managing the China challenge:

Arif Rafiq is the editor of Globely News. Rafiq has contributed commentary and analysis on global issues for publications such as Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the New Republic, the New York Times, and POLITICO Magazine.

He has appeared on numerous broadcast outlets, including Al Jazeera English, the BBC World Service, CNN International, and National Public Radio.

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