The Kremlin isn’t about to lose its grip on Crimea. But Ukrainian claims that it will eventually retake it are now a bit more believable.
Stefan Wolff
Ukraine blames the Nova Kakhovka dam breach on Russia, claiming Moscow aims to thwart the Ukrainian offensive in this area.
New military aid commitments by European allies give Ukraine vital equipment to use against an adversary with significant manpower advantages.
Unless the attack was simply motivated by the kudos of demonstrating an ability to strike at the heart of Russian power, it makes no military sense on Kyiv’s part.
By reigning in Russia over Ukraine, Xi can firmly establish China as an indispensable guarantor of security and stability in Europe.
The EU’s inability to decisively commit to bolstering Ukraine reflects the wider contest over Europe’s vision of a future of the world order.
The strategic stalemate on the ground that was established at the end of last year when Ukraine’s counter-offensive ended is likely to continue.
The Ukraine war, as the Northern Ireland peace process shows, can only end sustainably at the negotiation table if all parties’ core interests are addressed.
There is danger that the military assets Russia controls in Transnistria could be used to create a second front in the war against Ukraine.
China’s Ukraine peace initiative proposal helps position it as a great power in Eurasia, challenging both Russia and the West.