The Ukraine war, as the Northern Ireland peace process shows, can only end sustainably at the negotiation table if all parties’ core interests are addressed.
Europe is being transformed by an aging population and the influx of migrants. War and reactionary politics harken back to its bloody past. Situated between two dueling superpowers, China and America, many in Europe feel squeezed and seek strategic autonomy. But Russia is on its borders.
Russia fears NATO will position military capabilities along its border with Finland near its strategically important bases and geography.
With the rise of Humza Yousaf, UK, Scotland, and Ireland are now all led by people from the South Asian diaspora.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin prefer a multipolar world order, which would most probably result in a number of regional hegemons.
The Crimean annexation set up the Ukraine war. Viewing the West as weak, Putin thought he could do something bigger for the rest of Ukraine in 2022.
There is danger that the military assets Russia controls in Transnistria could be used to create a second front in the war against Ukraine.
Russian officials said in February 2023 that Ukraine is planning to invade Moldova — an accusation Moldovan officials struck down as a false-flag operation
Russia and Ukraine are bogged down by mud as they battle for control of Bakhmut. Warmer conditions in April could lead to a break in the stalemate.
The scale at which military hardware is being consumed in Ukraine is straining weapons supply chains and could make commanders risk-averse.
Subsidies are not without problems, even for China. They produce unintended losers and make the market less competitive and more inefficient as a whole.