Despite heavy sanctions, Vladimir Putin retains his grip on power and the will to fight in Ukraine.
Russia is a former superpower that retains muscle memory from its better days. Both in its near periphery and beyond, it’s capable of doing damage. But as the Ukraine war goes on, the impact of its extraterritorial adventures could take a toll at home.
If Russia is to regain the initiative and the territory that it has lost in Ukraine over the past months, it first needs to regain the trust and goodwill of its soldiers.
Putin’s Ukraine war has weakened Russia, strengthened NATO, united Ukraine, and accelerated the emergence of a multipolar world order.
The future of Russia-Ukraine war includes the possibility of a protracted conflict with no end in sight.
As the team investigating the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 zeroes in on Putin’s role, Moscow’s obstruction may bring the process to an end.
The upcoming naval exercises involving Russia, South Africa, and China are a reminder that multipolarity will be a feature of this new cold war.
Russian disinformation seeks to convince its public that the war is winnable and distract Ukraine and its Western allies.
Ukrainians have the resolve and foreign support to continue their fight. The Ukraine war will end when Putin can no longer afford its costs.
Russian fuel exports actually rose during the first 100 days of the Ukraine war.
Moscow’s recognition of separatist claims in Ukraine could signal further Russian action to capture more former Soviet territories.