Since 2012, Putin has consistently called Ukraine a historical aberration, creating the foundation for what Russia now says is a “forever war.”
Russia
Russia is a former superpower that retains muscle memory from its better days. Both in its near periphery and beyond, it’s capable of doing damage. But as the Ukraine war goes on, the impact of its extraterritorial adventures could take a toll at home.
Russia and Ukraine are preparing for offensives this spring in Crimea, a region of strategic and symbolic importance that has been occupied by Moscow since 2014.
Putin may be bluffing, but the deal to station tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine marks a significant nuclear escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Ukraine’s demonstrated capacity to seize opportunities created by Russia’s weakness at sea could eventually tip the scales in its favor.
Putin’s announcement of New START’s suspension weakens the last remaining arms control agreement but doesn’t immediately terminate it.
Fighting this spring will determine whether Ukraine can defeat Russia this year or face a long, grueling war.
Despite heavy sanctions, Vladimir Putin retains his grip on power and the will to fight in Ukraine.
If Russia is to regain the initiative and the territory that it has lost in Ukraine over the past months, it first needs to regain the trust and goodwill of its soldiers.
Putin’s Ukraine war has weakened Russia, strengthened NATO, united Ukraine, and accelerated the emergence of a multipolar world order.
The future of Russia-Ukraine war includes the possibility of a protracted conflict with no end in sight.