Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan on Saturday, ending his four years of self-exile. After arriving in the capital Islamabad, Sharif filed an application to restore appeals against convictions in two corruption cases. He then made his way to Lahore — Pakistan’s second-largest city — where he addressed a massive rally in front of the country’s national monument, the Minar-e Pakistan.
Sharif hopes to become prime minister of Pakistan for a fourth time. It appears that he has the powerful army on his side. But regaining the support of Pakistan’s voters may be a tougher feat.
Saturday’s audience, while large in size, lacked enthusiasm. Participation from Lahore itself, long the Sharif’s stronghold and home to 14 National Assembly seats, was lackluster.
A Game of Musical Chairs
Sharif returns to a Pakistan changed by years of economic and political turmoil. Since 2018, Pakistan has been hit with high inflation, well into the double-digits for most of this period. Into early 2022, the Pakistani public held then-Prime Minister Imran Khan responsible for the soaring cost of living. Sharif, exiled at the time, had a 19-point approval rating lead over Khan.
But in just a matter of months, the roles were reversed. Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), returned to power to lead a coalition backed by the army. His brother, Shehbaz — valued more for his governance capabilities than his charisma — replaced Khan as prime minister.
Shehbaz’s tenure was marked by paralysis and ineptitude. Inflation soared to close to 40 percent, eating not just into Pakistanis’ purchasing power, but also the PML-N’s support. Meanwhile, Khan took to the streets, armed with a narrative that fused public grievances against corruption as well as interference by the army and the United States. Khan’s popularity soared.
Today, Sharif is out free, while Khan — an ex-cricketer in prison on convictions related to the alleged concealment of wealth — remains Pakistan’s most popular politician.
Irony of this sort is a feature of Pakistani politics. Pakistani politicians take turns serving time in prison after running afoul of the army.
Inflation Nation
Today, inflation in Pakistan stands at 35 percent. The World Bank and other multilateral institutions forecast it to remain in the double digits into 2025. General elections are tentatively set for January 2023. Inflation will remain a noose around the neck of whoever rules Pakistan over the next few years.
Sharif has no solution for Pakistan’s inflation woes. His instinct is to throw money at things — typically large-scale infrastructure. But right now, that would be like pouring fuel on fire. In any event, Pakistan simply does not have the fiscal space or the foreign support to fund Sharif’s style of governance.
The 73-year-old returns to his country without a compelling narrative or real solutions. In his address on Saturday, Sharif sought to turn the clock back to 2018, when his party served its last full term and Pakistan saw economic growth at close to 6 percent. That was merely the calm before the storm. The high GDP growth rate masked a balance of payments crisis, created by Sharif’s consumption- and Chinese-financing-driven growth.
For average Pakistanis, 2018 is the distant past. They remember the PML-N’s brief, disastrous rule from April 2022 into this September after taking power from Khan. They have seen a massive decline not just in their purchasing power, but also in their political rights and civil liberties, as the PML-N-led coalition ceded power to the army to crush the popular Khan.
The Road Ahead
Sharif, once a protege of the army, has had a tumultuous relationship with the military, clashing with each army chief during his tenure, resulting in the premature end of his terms.
Having bitten the forbidden fruit — collusion with the army — once again, Sharif has fallen from grace in the eyes of many of his staunchest supporters and young Pakistanis, who make up nearly half of the electorate.
Sharif, it appears, hasn’t woken up and smelled the coffee. An unnamed PML-N official told Dawn, Pakistan’s oldest English-language daily, that Sharif “is an old man, surrounded by old guards and came back to appeal to his old constituency, whereas the vast majority is young and unable to connect with him.”
There is, however, one younger person whom Sharif has on his mind: his daughter and likely successor, Maryam. In his address on Saturday, Sharif mentioned her many times — far more often than he mentioned his brother, Shehbaz.
The next election results may produce a hung parliament and a weak coalition government. But that is just one step on the road for Nawaz Sharif, who clearly has one eye on coming back to power and another on preserving his branch of the Sharif political dynasty.
Arif Rafiq is the editor of Globely News. Rafiq has contributed commentary and analysis on global issues for publications such as Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the New Republic, the New York Times, and POLITICO Magazine.
He has appeared on numerous broadcast outlets, including Al Jazeera English, the BBC World Service, CNN International, and National Public Radio.