Russian nuclear doctrine outlines four cases in which it would use its nuclear weapons. One is against an existential, conventional threat.
Lukashenko’s interventions in the Prigozhin mutiny episode show that he does not necessarily operate in lockstep with Moscow.
Lukashenko can now pose as someone whose intervention got the Russian president out of a tight spot and helped stave off a civil war in Russia.
Putin may be bluffing, but the deal to station tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine marks a significant nuclear escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war.