The South China Sea will remain unpredictable in 2024. But momentum has shifted in favor of the Southeast Asian claimants.
East Asia
Washington presents South Korea Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol as a pro-democracy ally. But, at home, concerns over Yoon’s illiberal tendencies grow.
The contest between pro- and anti-entrepreneurship forces will determine Japan’s economic future.
China may pursue “horizontal” escalation in the South China Sea, intensifying current grey-zone actions below the threshold of using force.
In 2023, the U.S. advanced relations with key allies and partners in Asia while finding firmer footing in its relations with China.
A China containment strategy has no tangible benefits for European security. It merely advances the U.S. aim to maintain its global hegemony.
Chinese coercion has taken its toll on the South Korean economy, but it is prompting Seoul to reduce its exposure to China.
The Washington Declaration is a big step forward in U.S.-South Korea relations. Seoul will have a much greater say in intel-sharing and nuclear strategy.
Seoul and Washington will want to send a message of unity in the face of saber-rattling — and worse — by North Korea, China, and Russia.