Tensions are rising in the Horn of Africa as regional power Ethiopia makes a push for sea access with an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland.
Horn of Africa
The Somalia-Turkey military agreement is limited in scope and capabilities being offered. Its near-term effects will be modest.
The Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal has raised tensions in a geopolitical game that also involves China, Djibouti, Egypt, Somalia, and the UAE.
Ethiopia’s Gulf of Aden agreement with Somaliland escalates regional tensions and challenges international maritime law.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed demands Red Sea port access, risking regional conflict and straining international relations.
The conflict between Prime Minister Abiy and Tigrayan nationalists could put Ethiopia on the path to civil war.
The Horn of Africa is the epicenter of foreign military activity in the continent.
Moving away from a clan-based power-sharing system in Somalia is risky.
Turkey and the UAE join China, the United States, and others in a scramble for bases and ports.