Tensions are rising in the Horn of Africa as regional power Ethiopia makes a push for sea access with an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland.
Somalia
The Somalia-Turkey military agreement is limited in scope and capabilities being offered. Its near-term effects will be modest.
The Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal has raised tensions in a geopolitical game that also involves China, Djibouti, Egypt, Somalia, and the UAE.
Ethiopia’s Gulf of Aden agreement with Somaliland escalates regional tensions and challenges international maritime law.
The U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia was largely responsible for creating the political uncertainty and violence that prevail today.
Moving away from a clan-based power-sharing system in Somalia is risky.
Turkey and the UAE join China, the United States, and others in a scramble for bases and ports.