The Wagner Group, rebranded as the Africa Corps and now under Russian Defense Ministry control, will survive as long as its mercenaries get paid.
Prigozhin’s death is unlikely to significantly affect the Wagner Groups’s African operations as demand for mercenary services remain high.
With Prigozhin’s death, Putin’s message is clear: opposition will not be tolerated and will probably have fatal consequences.
Lukashenko’s interventions in the Prigozhin mutiny episode show that he does not necessarily operate in lockstep with Moscow.
Beijing is avoiding direct comment on the Wagner Mutiny, but in subtle ways, it may be suggesting to Moscow it needs to get its house in order.
Lukashenko can now pose as someone whose intervention got the Russian president out of a tight spot and helped stave off a civil war in Russia.
Vladimir Putin is a tough and resilient politician, but the aborted mutiny has exposed profound structural flaws in the Russian system of rule.
Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is leading his troops back across the border into Russia in open rebellion, making his way toward Moscow.
If Russia falls into internal crisis, Yevgeny Prigozhin will become a kingmaker, even if not a king himself.
The infighting between Wagner and Russia’s military has become a soap opera played out in front of a global audience.