Prigozhin’s death is unlikely to significantly affect the Wagner Groups’s African operations as demand for mercenary services remain high.
With Prigozhin’s death, Putin’s message is clear: opposition will not be tolerated and will probably have fatal consequences.
Lukashenko’s interventions in the Prigozhin mutiny episode show that he does not necessarily operate in lockstep with Moscow.
Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is leading his troops back across the border into Russia in open rebellion, making his way toward Moscow.
If Russia falls into internal crisis, Yevgeny Prigozhin will become a kingmaker, even if not a king himself.
The infighting between Wagner and Russia’s military has become a soap opera played out in front of a global audience.
Russia and Ukraine are bogged down by mud as they battle for control of Bakhmut. Warmer conditions in April could lead to a break in the stalemate.