For both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the path to victory in 2024 will come down to seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Trump’s path to victory is actually even narrower. He’ll need to win at least one of the three “Blue Wall” states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.
These three states had all been won by the Democrats in presidential elections going back to 1992 until Trump broke that streak with his shock victory in 2016, winning all three. Biden restored the Democrats’ hold over the Blue Wall in 2020, but these states are toss-ups this time around.
The reason Trump will need to win at least one Blue Wall state comes down to simple math. There are 538 Electoral College votes in total, and the next president would need to win 270 to secure a majority. Outside these seven battleground states, Harris and Trump are positioned to win 226 and 219 electoral votes, respectively.
Even if Trump wins all four battleground states outside the Blue Wall — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — he would only have a total of 268 electoral votes, leaving him two short of the necessary majority.
He would be one vote short of a tie, principally because of Nebraska’s quirky Electoral College system. Nebraska is a red state, but, like Maine, it splits its electoral votes between districts. Its 2nd District is a mini swing state. Though Trump won it in 2016, Biden took it in 2020, and Harris is favored to win it in 2024.
For Trump to reach or surpass the 270 mark, even after sweeping the four non-Blue Wall battleground states, he will have to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, which have 10, 15, and 19 electoral votes, respectively. Winning any of these states would push Trump well past the 270 needed — but, again, only if he secures the other four battleground states outside the Blue Wall.
In total, Trump has more than twenty paths to victory in 2024 — but all require at least one Blue Wall state.
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