Aaron Judge’s Playoff Struggles: Sports Psychology Reveal Vulnerabilities

Is Aaron Judge breaking out of his playoff slump? The double Judge rocketed off of Lucas Erceg in the top of the sixth tonight suggests his dark days may be over.

But the difference between Aaron Judge’s 2024 regular season and playoffs has been night and day.

In the regular season, Judge got off to a slow start but then hit a torrid pace from May into August and resumed in mid-September after a 16-game home run drought.

Judge concluded what was one of the best offensive seasons in MLB history. The numbers are nothing short of extraordinary: a .322 batting average, 58 home runs, 144 runs batted in, and an OPS of 1.159.

Midseason, the conversation about Judge shifted dramatically from whether he’s one of the MLB’s best today to whether he’s one of the best baseball players ever.

And that’s what makes Judge’s awful postseason performance so surprising. Judge has perfected his offensive game in the regular season. His chase rate has declined since 2020 to a stellar 19.2 percent this regular reason — one of the best in the league and nine points below the MLB average.

But this postseason, Judge is hitting below the Mendoza Line with a .154 batting average. He has a career batting average of just .207 in seven postseasons. That’s far below other Yankee greats like Derek Jeter, who hit .308 in the postseason.

Judge does not appear to be suffering from any injury. Given his previous struggles in October, the problem, it seems, is in his head.

So what specifically might ail Judge? According to sports psychology, there might be three problems facing Judge:

1. Social Comparison Stress: The Yankees’s winning tradition — 27 World Series championships and a Monument Park filled with greats — could be weighing on Judge. The center fielder may feel pressed to live up to the likes of Jeter, Mickey Mantle, and other Yankee greats.
2. Role Conflict: Judge is not just a number three hitter. He’s the team captain, the face of a franchise, and the longest-tenured Yankee right now. It’s one thing to carry his individual burdens in the regular season, but the burden of leading his team to victory in October, in the view of fans and the media, is on him more than any other Yankee.
3. Performance Anxiety: We’re talking about performance on the baseball field, not elsewhere. Judge has been clutch in the regular season and thrives in the world’s most brutal media market. But October is a whole other ball game. The Yankees go into every season expecting to win it all. That burden can break the zen-like patience of Judge, messing with his timing and judgment.

With tonight’s victory, the Yankees close out the Division Series against the Kansas City Royals and move on to the American League Championship Series. Judge’s extra-base hit in the sixth tonight may be a step in the right direction, but the pressure and stakes will only increase deeper into October.