Texas Sen. Ted Cruz leads his upstart opponent, Rep. Colin Allred, by just a single digit, according to a new poll by The Hill and Emerson College.
In the survey of likely voters conducted from Oct. 18 to 21, 48 percent said they support Cruz, the Republican incumbent, while 47 percent back Allred, the Democrat.
The tight margin marks the second consecutive close re-election race for Cruz in a reliably red state. The last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate race in Texas was in 1998, when Lloyd Bentsen defeated Republican Beau Boulter.
Cruz’s declining support appears to stem from his personal weaknesses as a candidate, rather than broader dynamics, like a down-ballot effect.
In fact, as Cruz’s lead over Allred narrows, former President Donald Trump has actually widened his advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas. In the same Emerson poll, Trump leads Harris 53 percent to 46 percent in the Lone Star State. Even as independents in Texas swing back in Trump’s direction, they favor Allred over Cruz, 47 percent to 42 percent.
For Cruz, likeability remains a significant obstacle. His unfavorable rating is quite high, sitting at 50 percent, and he underperforms Trump across all age groups, particularly among younger voters. Nearly 15 percent fewer voters aged 18 to 29 support Cruz compared to Trump.
Immigration and the economy are the top two issues for Texas voters. While Cruz leads with voters who prioritize these issues, he underperforms compared to Trump in commanding their support.
Despite attempts to rehabilitate his image, many voters continue to see Cruz as a divisive politician who prefers grandstanding over legislating.
The Texas senator hosts a podcast that produces four episodes a week. At the same time, he ranks among the bottom half of his Senate colleagues in key measurements of participation, including bills cosponsored, committee leadership positions, and bipartisan bills joined. In 2022, Cruz was among the top 20 senators in missed votes.
By contrast, Cruz’s opponent Allred casts a more dynamic and amenable disposition. A former NFL athlete and Berkeley law school graduate, Allred has represented the suburban Dallas 32nd congressional district since 2018.
Allred has pivoted to the center in this campaign, appearing on The Bulkwark podcast, which is popular with Never-Trump Republicans. He was also endorsed by former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney.
As Cruz underperforms Trump, Allred overperforms Harris with men, younger voters, and Hispanics.
In addition to these poll numbers, the Allred campaign received another boost this week when it was endorsed by the Dallas Morning News, the state’s top newspaper. The paper endorsed Beto O’Rourke in his 2018 run against Cruz. O’Rourke lost by just 2.5 percent in the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas in 40 years.
The Allred-Cruz election is on course to be similarly close. If Allred prevails, he would also make history by becoming the first black senator from Texas.
FiveThirtyEight projects the Republicans to regain control over the Senate with a narrow one-seat majority. Cruz’s unlikability could cost his party the Senate.
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