Basil Germond

Russia is likely to lose its Tartus naval base in Syria, undermining its Mediterranean presence, global influence, and naval reach.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia now has the right to target assets of nations that supply Ukraine with tactical missiles after the U.S. authorized the use of such weapons against targets deep into Russian territory. So far Putin’s warning feels like a rhetorical escalation, which might not yet result in a direct military confrontation. But short of a “real” war, Moscow can destabilize Western economies and societies with operations in what is called the “gray zone.” The gray zone is not defined geographically. It is a functional space between war and peace, where jurisdictions are blurred, contested,…

There’s growing risk that the West may lose its maritime dominance, opening the door for a new, illiberal China-dominated world order.

If the Houthis can force a prolonged diversion of global trade from the Red Sea, most countries will be hit by the economic impact.

The U.S.-led anti-Houthi naval task force faces significant operational challenges, including few warships for a large area and short missile warning times.

Ukraine’s maritime gains in the Black Sea counterbalance the land stalemate, disrupting Russia’s strategy and enhancing Ukraine’s long-term resilience.

Ukraine’s recent successes in the Black Sea create strategic opportunities, including undermining the Russian blockade.

Ukraine’s demonstrated capacity to seize opportunities created by Russia’s weakness at sea could eventually tip the scales in its favor.