Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will release its Q1 2025 delivery numbers on Wednesday morning, ahead of the opening bell. By all indications, the results are expected to disappoint.
The electric vehicle maker is seeing registrations plunge across Europe, with declines of 40% to 60% reported in France, the Netherlands, and Denmark. In Germany — where CEO Elon Musk has drawn criticism for supporting the far-right AfD party — Tesla sales fell 76% in February. In China, sales dropped 49% during the same month.
Tesla’s other business segments may also take a hit. EnergySage, a solar marketplace, reports a surge in customers requesting alternatives to Tesla’s Powerwall.
What Analysts Are Saying
At the start of the year, the consensus estimate for Tesla’s Q1 deliveries was 450,000. But that has since fallen by approximately 20%.
The current Q1 consensus projects a 2% decline year-over-year to 377,592 units, which would represent Tesla’s worst quarterly performance since Q3 2022.
But some leading analysts are more bearish. RBC Capital Markets estimates 364,000 units, JPMorgan forecasts 355,000, and Deutsche Bank predicts just 345,000.
Tesla will likely cite the ongoing Model Y mid-cycle refresh as a contributing factor for the sales decline, but the brand’s image has also taken a hit as Musk has embraced far-right extremism, not only pushing customers away, but triggering a protest movement against his company.
Tesla Stock Takes a Hit — And Could Tumble Further
JPMorgan has lowered its price target to $120, down from $135. Tesla stock closed at $268.46 on Monday, up 3.59% on the day but still down nearly 50% from its 52-week high of $488.54.
Used Tesla prices are also falling, and the company is reportedly holding a sizable inventory of unsold Cybertrucks.
Meanwhile, competition continues to intensify as overall EV demand growth softens.
What to Watch Out For
Tesla vehicles sold in the U.S. are manufactured domestically — just as its China-bound vehicles are made locally. That may suggest it is uniquely positioned to survive President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
However, Tesla may not be as immune as some believe it to be. Tesla’s vehicles rely on an undisclosed number of Canadian components.
The precise share of U.S.-made parts remains unclear, as the 1994 American Automobile Labeling Act does not require automakers to distinguish between U.S. and Canadian content in their reporting.
As the Tesla CEO continues to prioritize his regime change project in Washington, will there be a backlash from shareholders? Among the institutional players to watch out for are public employee pension funds, including CalPERS, CalSTRS, and the New York State Common Retirement Fund.
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