If deterrence between Israel and Hezbollah fails to hold, the Lebanon-Israel border could explode, risking a broader U.S.-Iran war.
Middle East
The Middle East is both ancient and dramatically changing. Authoritarian rulers dominate, but some countries are opening economically and socially. And new alignments are being forged as the U.S. takes a step back from the region and China begins to play a more active role.
After Raisi, conservatives in Tehran will likely intensify state repression and electoral manipulation, and carefully dial up regional confrontation.
As attacks across the Israel-Lebanon frontier escalate, speculation grows over whether another full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah looms.
Oman plays a crucial role in keeping a backchannel of communication open between the U.S. and Iran as parties seek to tamp down tensions.
Khalil Sayegh of the Agora Initiative joins host Arif Rafiq to discuss conditions on the ground in Gaza and the future that awaits its people.
Iran and Israel are both constrained. Neither can decisively win a prolonged military campaign against each other.
Facing a crisis of legitimacy at home, Iran is adopting a more measured foreign policy, including by pursuing indirect talks with the U.S.
The Palestinian Authority faces a legitimacy crisis. Many Palestinians see it as little more than a subcontractor of occupation in the West Bank.
Turnout is likely to be low in Iran’s elections on Friday, but the vote will be consequential as the new Assembly of Experts will probably choose the next supreme leader
Iran’s will to win the Middle East wars stems from a strategic culture of “us against the world,” forged in the cauldron that followed the 1979 revolution.