If deterrence between Israel and Hezbollah fails to hold, the Lebanon-Israel border could explode, risking a broader U.S.-Iran war.
Axis of Resistance
After Raisi, conservatives in Tehran will likely intensify state repression and electoral manipulation, and carefully dial up regional confrontation.
Iran’s will to win the Middle East wars stems from a strategic culture of “us against the world,” forged in the cauldron that followed the 1979 revolution.
If the Houthis can force a prolonged diversion of global trade from the Red Sea, most countries will be hit by the economic impact.
Israel’s assassination campaign escalates its shadow war with Iran, with the growing potential for a second front in Lebanon opening.
The U.S.-led anti-Houthi naval task force faces significant operational challenges, including few warships for a large area and short missile warning times.
While the attention of the world has focused on Israel’s assault on Gaza over the past two months, following Hamas’s…
Houthi provocations along the strategic Bab al-Mandeb are low risk and high return. They boost local support for the Houthis and could make the U.S. and Israel more risk-averse.
Most Lebanese support the Palestinians. But with a reeling economy, a majority also opposes direct involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian war.
Whether Lebanon becomes a part of the Israeli-Palestinian war is ultimately up to Hezbollah, not the Lebanese government.