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The stock of Trump Media (DJT), the parent company of former President Donald Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, surged by as much as 15 percent on Monday. The rise may reflect market sentiment that the former president could win Tuesday’s presidential election.

Trump Media stock closed at $34.34 on Monday, representing a 12.37 percent increase by the end of trading.

The price of Trump Media stock is entirely unrelated to market fundamentals. Instead, it is viewed as a proxy for how the market perceives Trump’s prospects for reelection.

The company’s performance has been underwhelming, with just around 1 million active monthly users. That’s about 1/100th of the user base of X, formerly known as Twitter.

However, Trump Media’s market cap is around $7 billion — close to $1 billion dollars shy of the valuation of X Corp., the parent company of the Musk-owned social media platform.

Since going public this year, the stock has experienced a rollercoaster series of ups and downs, with bull runs followed by extended bear streaks. The stock had a particularly volatile day on October 15, rising by 13 percent and then dropping by 10 percent in a single day.

The Trump Media organization has also faced volatility within, with resignations and reports of whistleblower allegations of mismanagement by the company’s chief executive officer, former Rep. Devin Nunes.

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