For the foreseeable future, Beijing and Washington will, at best, be able to approach their shared interests by managing instability.
Chinese Foreign Policy
Ali Wyne joins host Arif Rafiq to discuss the risks of a U.S.-China war over Taiwan and the broader challenge of managing a rising China.
Pro-independence candidate Lai Ching-te wins Taiwan’s presidential race, potentially setting the stage for more aggressive behavior by China.
U.S.–China tensions will likely persist, if not worsen, in 2024 as the two sides double down on strategic competition and point-scoring.
As China’s economy slows, Xi Jinping and the CCP increasingly rely on nationalism to secure their legitimacy.
If Taiwan’s pro-independence DPP stays in power, Chinese leader Xi Jinping may feel he has no choice but to force the issue of reunification.
China is increasingly preparing for a possible conflict with the United States over Taiwan, though it likely seeks to avoid a full-blown war.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative continues to expand its global influence, particularly in developing autocracies, leveraging infrastructure and tech investments.
The Israeli-Palestinian war is making China’s strategic balancing act in the Middle East increasingly difficult to sustain.
China is engaging the Taliban to both deter security threats from Afghanistan and challenge Western influence in the Muslim world.