Stefan Wolff

At best, the Ukraine aid package may help Kyiv improve its bargaining position if and once it and Moscow negotiate an end to the war.

Russia is grinding down Ukrainian defenses along stretches of the frontline, probing for weaknesses it can explain later this year.

For the foreseeable future, Beijing and Washington will, at best, be able to approach their shared interests by managing instability.

Russia poses no imminent threat to Transnistria, but it will continue to try to destabilize Moldova ahead of its presidential elections.

Russia is not in imminent danger of losing Crimea, but the momentum around the peninsula seems to be on Ukraine’s side.

Ukraine needs a strategic ceasefire and talks — a combination akin to historical precedents for establishing sovereignty amidst conflict.

Corruption is central to Ukraine’s existential crisis. It could cause the country financial and moral support from Western allies.

Ukraine’s ammunition and manpower shortages and its weak air defenses will impede its ability to thwart a Russian spring offensive.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s demand for the mobilization of an additional 500,000 troops signals both resolve and desperation.

Facing a prolonged stalemate, Ukraine must prioritize defense against Russian advances while exploring diplomatic solutions to the war.